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Posts by "ashraf laidi"
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147 Posts by Anonymous "ashraf laidi":
I will be making some contributions to the IMT section but WILL FOCUS on the PREMIUM service to be unveiled later this month. Each contributor will have his/her own initial at the end of the IMT. Mine will be AL.
If you are in London, i strongly recommend you come to the London Expo Friday-Saturday April 8-9 where I will showcase the products on offerred. http://bit.ly/ejFQxz
MNI's FX Bullets service provides streaming info on FX flows, upcoming bond auctions / data / speeches, technical levels, option expiries, instant post-data analysis and much more.
Eveyone is asking me about the fees. DO not worry, these will be posted on the website as soon as the new service is already. Subscribers will have the option to get my daily analysis alone, MNI's FX Bullets alone, or BOTH as a bundle product. My PRIVATE Twitter stream @alaidiPremiumFX will be PART of my daily analysis, which means current followers to the twitter feed will have to pay for it once the Premium Service starts later this month.
I will give more info later.
Ashraf
Ezone Flash March CPI jumped to 2.6% from 2.4% vs exp 2.3% justifying the latest hawkish talk from the ECB. EURUSD was already rallying before the data when after ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the bank should introduce series of gradual rates hikes in the Ezone.
One of the reasons markets ignored last nights comments from Kansas Feds Hoenig that the Fed indicating the Fed needed to get on with tightening current ultra loose policy is that i) Hoenig is NOT a voter at this years FOMC and ii) Hoenig was the ONLY consistent hawkish dissenter throughout all of last year, therefore, his demands for tightening are NEITHER new or effective. And so that is why I quipped earlier today that ONE Hawkish ECB comments was nearly worth THREE times the impact of Hawkish Fed comments? 2 days ago I emphasized EURUSD would remain supported above the Feb 14 trendline support of 1.3980. Now resistance emerges at 1.4255.
Ashraf
After posting a 3-day rebound, both S&P500 and the Dow-30 fall back down, struggling to regain those important 55-day moving averages (1,301 and 12,003 respectively). The two indices have also failed to take out the trendline extending from the Feb high. This presents the pattern of LOWER HIGHS, suggesting 1,266 and 11,705 will be the next key levels to watch (100-dma).
Meanwhile, BOTH EURUSD AND GBPUSD race to the bottom, awaiting the final vote Portuguese austerity (expected at around 13:00 ET or 17:00 GMT). EURUSD seen set to lose further ground below $1.41 but emerging support expected to build at the Feb 14 trendline at 1.3970. GBPUSD posts a bearish engulfing daily candle, suggesting potential losses towards 1.6140 but trendline stands at 1.6080. EURGBP unable to break out of the top of the Mar 18 wedge, whose falling trenbdine resistance now stands at 0.8710, eysing 0.8660 interim target, a break of which is needed to call up 0.8620.
Ashraf
With Japan announcing joined intervention mainly to support USDJPY, it is worth looking at EURJPY. EURUSD is finally responding positively to the intervention (as predicted in prior IMT) nearing 1.4070s and potentially onto the 1.4120s target. The KEY QUESTION NOW, is whether the unfolding risk appetite in FX resulting from intervention will kick into a sustainable bounce in equities and prevent key US indices from closing below their 55-day MAs. Recall, EURJPY longs was among the top 6 trades selected in my Jan 23 seminar and Workbook presented at last months Traders Expo in NY. The rationale of that trade was based on an improving likelihood for EURJPY to breakout of its 12-month 106-115 consolidation, with a hawkish ECB and post-fiscal year yen weakness.
AUDUSD faces pressure at the 0.9980 trendline, USDCAD vulnerable 0.9760 and USDCHF capped at 0.9130.
ASHRAFLAIDI.com will have a BOOTH AT THE LONDON TRADERS EXPO on April 8-9, 2011. Ashraf will conduct On-Booth Presentations, present a 1-hour seminar (Apr 9 14:30-15:30) and moderate a currency panel among 3 FX analysts. Register Free here:http://bit.ly/ faq2Js First 20 visitors to the booth will obtain 2 free weeks to Ashrafs upcoming Premium FX Service.
Ashraf
Heres an interview i did in August explaining stubborn Yen Strength (still applicable) http://bit.ly/bYMesi
For those still asking why Yen rises during global fears, go to CHAPTER 5 in my book about CARRY TRADES, RISK AVERSION and the use of the yen as a funding currency.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/book/
Ashraf
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Ashraf
One clear dynamic is the downside in EURUSD and GBPUSD, eyeing $1.3520 (100-day MA) and $1.60 after the double too from November. US Unemp rate seen at 9.5% from 9.4% while payrolls seen at +155K from 113K. Will the slowdown in ADP to 187K from 247K predict a weak NFP between 90 and 110K? More importantly, will it prevent S&P500 from closing above 1307?
Ashraf
Here is my Booth: http://bit.ly/dXa83F
Ashraf